o***@yahoo.com
2020-04-18 22:44:08 UTC
In today's mad world anything is possible. Since there is souch overleveraging on US TREASURY BONDS it seems even zero interest rates might not curb the appetite for these bonds. There seems to be so much money outside the US with various groups ( not all who might be legitimate) who simply want a safe haven for their money. For them it might even make sense to
Pay a certain amount each year to keep
Their money safe. The fed could start with something small like -0.1%. And then raise it to -0.25%. We could even conceivably see -0.50 % and possibly even - 1% in the years to come. This will ensure that the bull Market for bonds continues.
Of course we could always revert to conventional
wisdom and get back to regular interest rates in the years to come. Since anything positive is only upwards from here (we are at zero interest rates on 30 year US TREASURY BONDS) we could now see a reversal of the bull market as interest rates gradually rise. I feel that once interest rates for US TREASURY BONDS go back upto about 2% things will Actually be a lot better for the US in the long run. WE will actually get a more stable financial system as interest rates climb back upto normal normals. Maybe even seeing 2.5 to 3% on US TREASURY BONDS ONE DAY. But certainly around 2%!to bring back some balance and stability in the US financial system.
However it will be interesting to see if at least for the short term ( maybe even for the medium term ) we actually see negative interest rates. Could it happen. Theoretically yes. Practically no but than one never knows sincevthe demand for US TREASURY BONDS IS SO HIGH and there is so much overleveraging on US TREASURY BONDS all over the world that this unlikely scenario may occur.
Pay a certain amount each year to keep
Their money safe. The fed could start with something small like -0.1%. And then raise it to -0.25%. We could even conceivably see -0.50 % and possibly even - 1% in the years to come. This will ensure that the bull Market for bonds continues.
Of course we could always revert to conventional
wisdom and get back to regular interest rates in the years to come. Since anything positive is only upwards from here (we are at zero interest rates on 30 year US TREASURY BONDS) we could now see a reversal of the bull market as interest rates gradually rise. I feel that once interest rates for US TREASURY BONDS go back upto about 2% things will Actually be a lot better for the US in the long run. WE will actually get a more stable financial system as interest rates climb back upto normal normals. Maybe even seeing 2.5 to 3% on US TREASURY BONDS ONE DAY. But certainly around 2%!to bring back some balance and stability in the US financial system.
However it will be interesting to see if at least for the short term ( maybe even for the medium term ) we actually see negative interest rates. Could it happen. Theoretically yes. Practically no but than one never knows sincevthe demand for US TREASURY BONDS IS SO HIGH and there is so much overleveraging on US TREASURY BONDS all over the world that this unlikely scenario may occur.