Discussion:
The Cost of Preventing AGW
(too old to reply)
tg
2007-12-26 19:07:21 UTC
Permalink
What is the cost?

Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.

Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.

-tg
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-26 19:51:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
The cost will belong to the masses. That is because big business will,
well, make big business out of the issue. And yet, nothing will really
get done. Global warming will just be another instrument used to
consolidate wealth.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-26 20:42:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
The cost will belong to the masses. That is because big business will,
well, make big business out of the issue. And yet, nothing will really
get done. Global warming will just be another instrument used to
consolidate wealth.
AGW is one of the biggest monkey wrenches to ever get tossed into
rightard pseudomarket economic theory which is why you see so many
rightards in such a state of denial over AGW.

The reason the rich pay Al Gore to hype AGW isn't to counter AGW but
to counter any serious discussion of AGW.

They know the unpopular misanthrope Gore discredits any cause he
supports.

I predict it will blow up in their faces.


Bret Cahill
Miller
2007-12-26 21:28:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
Oil and energy companies, and any other industry--anything from auto to
tourism--would loose short-term profits if we were to pull back from an
economy based on runaway mass consumption. In the US and elsewhere, that is
a big stumbling block to any significant change.

In the meantime, we will change over to fluorescent lightbulbs nod in
agreement when watching Al Goreish documentaries and convince ourselves that
we have done everything we can. And watch everything burn slowly faster and
faster while rich men fiddle.

Scott
Peder B. Pels
2007-12-26 23:11:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Miller
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
Oil and energy companies, and any other industry--anything from auto to
tourism--would loose short-term profits if we were to pull back from an
economy based on runaway mass consumption. In the US and elsewhere, that is
a big stumbling block to any significant change.
In the meantime, we will change over to fluorescent lightbulbs nod in
agreement when watching Al Goreish documentaries and convince ourselves that
we have done everything we can. And watch everything burn slowly faster and
faster while rich men fiddle.
Scott
The Lear jets of the 'rich men' is nothing compared to the millions of
SUV's of the hoi polloi.
--
regards , Peter B. P. http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 00:12:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Miller
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
Oil and energy companies, and any other industry--anything from auto to
tourism--would loose short-term profits if we were to pull back from an
economy based on runaway mass consumption. �In the US and elsewhere, that is
a big stumbling block to any significant change.
In the meantime, we will change over to fluorescent lightbulbs nod in
agreement when watching Al Goreish documentaries and convince ourselves that
we have done everything we can. �And watch everything burn slowly faster and
faster while rich men fiddle.
Scott
The Lear jets of the 'rich men' is nothing compared to the millions of
SUV's of the hoi polloi.
That's assuming current production of petroleum keeps increasing.

In the not distant enough future, a few Lear jets can easily burn up
all the bio leaving zero (0) food as well as zero (0) fuel for the
rest of us.

Markets do in fact, handle the shortage problem: By "load shedding"
entire populations of those who cannot afford to pay.


Bret Cahill
Peder B. Pels
2007-12-27 00:51:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Miller
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
Oil and energy companies, and any other industry--anything from auto to
tourism--would loose short-term profits if we were to pull back from an
economy based on runaway mass consumption. ?In the US and elsewhere, that
is
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Miller
a big stumbling block to any significant change.
In the meantime, we will change over to fluorescent lightbulbs nod in
agreement when watching Al Goreish documentaries and convince ourselves th
at
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Miller
we have done everything we can. ?And watch everything burn slowly faster a
nd
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Miller
faster while rich men fiddle.
Scott
The Lear jets of the 'rich men' is nothing compared to the millions of
SUV's of the hoi polloi.
That's assuming current production of petroleum keeps increasing.
I'm also assuming that the Lear jets run on the same carbon hydrates as
the commoner's cars. Nudge nudge.
Post by Bret Cahill
In the not distant enough future, a few Lear jets can easily burn up
all the bio leaving zero (0) food as well as zero (0) fuel for the
rest of us.
That's ridiculous.
Post by Bret Cahill
Markets do in fact, handle the shortage problem: By "load shedding"
entire populations of those who cannot afford to pay.
Only way that is possible is by letting a privileged elite take it all,
and that has very little to do with (free) markets, but more US-style
state corporatism and managed trade (NAFTA, GATT, FTAA, EU etc.).
--
regards , Peter B. P. http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
Phil Hays
2007-12-27 04:09:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
In the not distant enough future, a few Lear jets can easily burn up
all the bio leaving zero (0) food as well as zero (0) fuel for the rest
of us.
That's ridiculous.
Oh? Why?

Biofuels put food (fuel) for Lear jets in the same marketplace as the food
the poor buy. That is an old story, common back when horsepower was real
horses. Bad year, and the horses the Barron and his household rode were
not going to starve, so some people needed to starve. Only so much food.
Barron pays cash.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
Markets do in fact, handle the shortage problem: By "load shedding"
entire populations of those who cannot afford to pay.
Only way that is possible is by letting a privileged elite take it all,
and that has very little to do with (free) markets, but more US-style
state corporatism and managed trade (NAFTA, GATT, FTAA, EU etc.).
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rules.
The question is, who sets the rules?
--
Phil Hays
Vince Morgan
2007-12-27 04:31:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rules.
The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be those
whom the rules benifit the most.
Peder B. Pels
2007-12-27 07:41:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rules.
The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be those
whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.

That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?

Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
--
regards , Peter B. P. http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 13:54:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
They are all on record openly opposing the precondition of free
markets:

Free speech on economic issues.


Bret Cahill
Peder B. Pels
2007-12-27 16:43:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
They are all on record openly opposing the precondition of free
Free speech on economic issues.
Bret Cahill
Bret, you've been spanking that horse for some time now, and I still
don't understand you; would you mind explaning what you mean by "free
speech on economic issues"?
--
regards , Peter B. P. http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 17:16:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
They are all on record openly opposing the precondition of free
Free speech on economic issues.
Bret Cahill
Bret, you've been spanking that horse for some time now, and I still
don't understand you; would you mind explaning what you mean by "free
speech on economic issues"?
It is well established Americans have free speech on social issues:
Bong hits for Jesus, flag burning, public nudity, nazi parades, nekked
nazi parades . . . these are all well known "free speech" issues.

We do _not_ have any case law on free speech on _economic_ issues.

Anyone can easily organize a key work search of all published opinions
in all the U. S. district and federal appellate courts in the United
States on Lexus-Nexus or West Group's AllFeds and find hundreds of
hits on culture war issues but only six where "economic" or
"employment" even appear in the same opinion as "freedom of
expression" or "freedom of speech" or "freedom of the press" or
"freedom of communication."

And if you read the opinions the only reason the words appeared
together was sheer coincidence.

Of the hundreds of millions of lawsuits over the past 30 years in the
territory of the United States there isn't _one single example_ of
anyone invoking freedom of speech on economic issues:

The only conclusion is:

a. Americans aren't interested in money

b. No one would ever censors speech on economic issues

c. Monied interests acquired control of not only the media and
Congress but the judiciary as well.

d. (make up anything you please)


Bret Cahill


"Of the 12 million inhabitants of the United States, _not one single
soul_ has dared to suggest restricting the freedom of the press."

-- DeTocqueville
ta
2007-12-27 20:23:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
They are all on record openly opposing the precondition of free
Free speech on economic issues.
Bret Cahill
Bret, you've been spanking that horse for some time now, and I still
don't understand you; would you mind explaning what you mean by "free
speech on economic issues"?
Bong hits for Jesus, flag burning, public nudity, nazi parades, nekked
nazi parades . . . these are all well known "free speech" issues.
We do _not_ have any case law on free speech on _economic_ issues.
Anyone can easily organize a key work search of all published opinions
in all the U. S. district and federal appellate courts in the United
States on Lexus-Nexus or West Group's AllFeds and find hundreds of
hits on culture war issues but only six where "economic" or
"employment" even appear in the same opinion as "freedom of
expression" or "freedom of speech" or "freedom of the press" or
"freedom of communication."
And if you read the opinions the only reason the words appeared
together was sheer coincidence.
Of the hundreds of millions of lawsuits over the past 30 years in the
territory of the United States there isn't _one single example_ of
a. Americans aren't interested in money
b. No one would ever censors speech on economic issues
c. Monied interests acquired control of not only the media and
Congress but the judiciary as well.
That's because in a society/culture based on a model of scarcity (and
as a result, greed), those with the power, resources, and money tend
to focus their energy on monopolizing the power, resources, and money.
And so we have a government of, by, and for the corporations
consisting of those willing to sell themselves to the highest bidder.

For example, all Hillary Clinton had to do to get elected was to stop
interfering with the profit motives of the "health care" companies and
start taking their campaign contributions instead. See how easy it is
to abandon one's principles? Yeah for "democracy"!!

And of course the major media outlets are run by the same corporate
interests, a la Chomsky's propaganda model, and as a result we have a
dummified electorate who waves their flags in support of the mythical
"free market" and who believes that we are in Iraq to liberate the
poor, dumb, muslims in Iraq.

Of course, in a society where this an abundance of resources (i.e., a
sustainable population level), all of this not only becomes
unnecessary, but totally counter-productive, and therefore insane. And
we humans are actually sane; we only indulge in insanity when there
are constraints on resources or when we have been manipulated into
believing things that aren't really true.

So speech is no more free than the markets are.
Post by Bret Cahill
d. (make up anything you please)
Bret Cahill
"Of the 12 million inhabitants of the United States, _not one single
soul_ has dared to suggest restricting the freedom of the press."
-- DeTocqueville
ta
2007-12-27 15:20:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rules.
The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be those
whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
--
regards , Peter B. P.http://titancity.com/blog,http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
"The free market is a myth. Everybody knows that. Just very few people
say it. . . . [I]f I'm not smart enough to know there's no free
market, I ought to be fired. . . . You can't have farming on a total
laissez-faire system because the sellers are too weak and the buyers
are too strong."
--Dwayne Andreas, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Corporation.
Peder B. Pels
2007-12-27 16:43:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by ta
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rule
s.
Post by ta
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be those
whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
--
regards , Peter B. P.http://titancity.com/blog,http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
"The free market is a myth. Everybody knows that. Just very few people
say it. . . . [I]f I'm not smart enough to know there's no free
market, I ought to be fired. . . . You can't have farming on a total
laissez-faire system because the sellers are too weak and the buyers
are too strong."
--Dwayne Andreas, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Corporation.
So, the opinion of one US CEO is now the sole truth and nothing but the
truth? Come on.
--
regards , Peter B. P. http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
Les Cargill
2007-12-28 02:14:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by ta
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rule
s.
Post by ta
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be those
whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
--
regards , Peter B. P.http://titancity.com/blog,http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
"The free market is a myth. Everybody knows that. Just very few people
say it. . . . [I]f I'm not smart enough to know there's no free
market, I ought to be fired. . . . You can't have farming on a total
laissez-faire system because the sellers are too weak and the buyers
are too strong."
--Dwayne Andreas, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Corporation.
So, the opinion of one US CEO is now the sole truth and nothing but the
truth? Come on.
*In his case*, it is the truth.

--
Les Cargill
Phil Hays
2007-12-27 22:18:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without
rules. The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be
those whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
Oh?
Post by Peder B. Pels
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
I suspect that there is a typo in what you wrote, as it makes no sense.

Take two islands. Both have mountains with lots of rain, but no soil, a
river carrying water to the ocean past flat land with no rain, but good
soil. Both islands have a series of canals to carry water from the river
to the land with good soils. On the first island, the canal owner sets the
rules of the market for water. On the second island, the farm owners set
the rules of the market for water.

How are these markets going to be different?

The canal owner will want to use his monopoly to maximize his individual
income, so he will make rules that require individually negotiated and
confidential prices for each farmer. He can then raise the price of water
on each farmer to exactly the point of the canal owner's maximum profit
from that farmer. Each farmer can take that price, or stop farming (and
starve or move or fish or whatever).

The farmers will want to minimize the power of the monopoly, so they would
like to have rules that make the price of water set by some collective
action, such as requiring an open "dutch auction", or something similar.

In the first case, the canal owner will have almost all of the disposable
income in the society. In the second case, the canal owner may well be
better off than the average farmer, but farmers, especially the more
efficient farmers and the farmers owning better land, are going to have
disposable income. Both markets are "free", only who sets the rules
changed.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
"Free trade" and "free markets" require rules. Who sets the rules will
decide what the market is like.
--
Phil Hays
tg
2007-12-27 23:27:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without
rules. The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be
those whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
Oh?
Post by Peder B. Pels
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
I suspect that there is a typo in what you wrote, as it makes no sense.
Take two islands. Both have mountains with lots of rain, but no soil, a
river carrying water to the ocean past flat land with no rain, but good
soil. Both islands have a series of canals to carry water from the river
to the land with good soils. On the first island, the canal owner sets the
rules of the market for water. On the second island, the farm owners set
the rules of the market for water.
How are these markets going to be different?
The canal owner will want to use his monopoly to maximize his individual
income, so he will make rules that require individually negotiated and
confidential prices for each farmer. He can then raise the price of water
on each farmer to exactly the point of the canal owner's maximum profit
from that farmer. Each farmer can take that price, or stop farming (and
starve or move or fish or whatever).
The farmers will want to minimize the power of the monopoly, so they would
like to have rules that make the price of water set by some collective
action, such as requiring an open "dutch auction", or something similar.
In the first case, the canal owner will have almost all of the disposable
income in the society. In the second case, the canal owner may well be
better off than the average farmer, but farmers, especially the more
efficient farmers and the farmers owning better land, are going to have
disposable income. Both markets are "free", only who sets the rules
changed.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
"Free trade" and "free markets" require rules. Who sets the rules will
decide what the market is like.
--
Imagine that there is plenty of water for everyone, and plenty of good
land.

What rules are required then?

-tg
Phil Hays
2007-12-28 18:49:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market
without rules. The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be
those whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
Oh?
Post by Peder B. Pels
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
I suspect that there is a typo in what you wrote, as it makes no sense.
Take two islands. Both have mountains with lots of rain, but no soil, a
river carrying water to the ocean past flat land with no rain, but good
soil. Both islands have a series of canals to carry water from the
river to the land with good soils. On the first island, the canal owner
sets the rules of the market for water. On the second island, the farm
owners set the rules of the market for water.
How are these markets going to be different?
The canal owner will want to use his monopoly to maximize his
individual income, so he will make rules that require individually
negotiated and confidential prices for each farmer. He can then raise
the price of water on each farmer to exactly the point of the canal
owner's maximum profit from that farmer. Each farmer can take that
price, or stop farming (and starve or move or fish or whatever).
The farmers will want to minimize the power of the monopoly, so they
would like to have rules that make the price of water set by some
collective action, such as requiring an open "dutch auction", or
something similar.
In the first case, the canal owner will have almost all of the
disposable income in the society. In the second case, the canal owner
may well be better off than the average farmer, but farmers, especially
the more efficient farmers and the farmers owning better land, are
going to have disposable income. Both markets are "free", only who sets
the rules changed.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
"Free trade" and "free markets" require rules. Who sets the rules will
decide what the market is like.
--
Imagine that there is plenty of water for everyone, and plenty of good
land.
What rules are required then?
While there may be plenty of water in the river, it takes labor and
materials to build and maintain a canal system. The canal owner will not
rationally provide plenty of water for everyone, for the price of water
would be too low to repay his efforts on the canal.

But, as you say, imagine that happens. Then the canal doesn't provide
enough return to be worth owning, as the price of water would fall to near
zero. There are several different things that might happen. First, the
canal owner might decide to provide less water by operating the canal at
less than full capacity. Second, the canal owner might try to increase the
demand for water by finding new uses or users for it. Getting new settlers
for the "plenty of good land", for example. Third, the canal owner might
try to get a flat fee payment from the farmers to support his canal,
rather than rely on a free market for water. Lastly, the canal owner might
abandon his canal, as it doesn't feed his family, and take up something
else.

Which option the canal owner might follow depends on what rules are in
place, and who makes the rules.
--
Phil Hays
tg
2007-12-28 20:14:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Hays
Post by tg
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market
without rules. The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would be
those whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
Oh?
Post by Peder B. Pels
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and unhindered
and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
I suspect that there is a typo in what you wrote, as it makes no sense.
Take two islands. Both have mountains with lots of rain, but no soil, a
river carrying water to the ocean past flat land with no rain, but good
soil. Both islands have a series of canals to carry water from the
river to the land with good soils. On the first island, the canal owner
sets the rules of the market for water. On the second island, the farm
owners set the rules of the market for water.
How are these markets going to be different?
The canal owner will want to use his monopoly to maximize his
individual income, so he will make rules that require individually
negotiated and confidential prices for each farmer. He can then raise
the price of water on each farmer to exactly the point of the canal
owner's maximum profit from that farmer. Each farmer can take that
price, or stop farming (and starve or move or fish or whatever).
The farmers will want to minimize the power of the monopoly, so they
would like to have rules that make the price of water set by some
collective action, such as requiring an open "dutch auction", or
something similar.
In the first case, the canal owner will have almost all of the
disposable income in the society. In the second case, the canal owner
may well be better off than the average farmer, but farmers, especially
the more efficient farmers and the farmers owning better land, are
going to have disposable income. Both markets are "free", only who sets
the rules changed.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting as
"tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
"Free trade" and "free markets" require rules. Who sets the rules will
decide what the market is like.
--
Imagine that there is plenty of water for everyone, and plenty of good
land.
What rules are required then?
While there may be plenty of water in the river, it takes labor and
materials to build and maintain a canal system. The canal owner will not
rationally provide plenty of water for everyone, for the price of water
would be too low to repay his efforts on the canal.
But, as you say, imagine that happens. Then the canal doesn't provide
enough return to be worth owning, as the price of water would fall to near
zero. There are several different things that might happen. First, the
canal owner might decide to provide less water by operating the canal at
less than full capacity. Second, the canal owner might try to increase the
demand for water by finding new uses or users for it. Getting new settlers
for the "plenty of good land", for example. Third, the canal owner might
try to get a flat fee payment from the farmers to support his canal,
rather than rely on a free market for water. Lastly, the canal owner might
abandon his canal, as it doesn't feed his family, and take up something
else.
Which option the canal owner might follow depends on what rules are in
place, and who makes the rules.
But if there is a river with plenty of water, and plenty of good land,
then each farmer can build a canal to irrigate his own land. There are
no canal owners who are not farmers, and no farmers who are not canal
owners. So there is no need for rules to govern the interaction
between canal owners and farmers, since they are the same person.

There might be canal builders, who don't farm, and farmers, who don't
build canals. But the interaction of these two groups would require no
rules; it would be an actual free market as described above. Each
would be free to exchange labor at whatever rate suits them, or not.

-tg
Post by Phil Hays
--
Phil Hays
Phil Hays
2007-12-29 01:35:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Phil Hays
Post by tg
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Vince Morgan
Post by Phil Hays
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market
without rules. The question is, who sets the rules?
Excellent question! It wouldn't be hard to imagine that it would
be those whom the rules benifit the most.
In which case it's not a free market. Duh.
Oh?
Post by Peder B. Pels
That "free" in "free market" means "trade happening on and
unhindered and equitable basis". Is it really that hard?
I suspect that there is a typo in what you wrote, as it makes no sense.
Take two islands. Both have mountains with lots of rain, but no soil,
a river carrying water to the ocean past flat land with no rain, but
good soil. Both islands have a series of canals to carry water from
the river to the land with good soils. On the first island, the canal
owner sets the rules of the market for water. On the second island,
the farm owners set the rules of the market for water.
How are these markets going to be different?
The canal owner will want to use his monopoly to maximize his
individual income, so he will make rules that require individually
negotiated and confidential prices for each farmer. He can then raise
the price of water on each farmer to exactly the point of the canal
owner's maximum profit from that farmer. Each farmer can take that
price, or stop farming (and starve or move or fish or whatever).
The farmers will want to minimize the power of the monopoly, so they
would like to have rules that make the price of water set by some
collective action, such as requiring an open "dutch auction", or
something similar.
In the first case, the canal owner will have almost all of the
disposable income in the society. In the second case, the canal owner
may well be better off than the average farmer, but farmers,
especially the more efficient farmers and the farmers owning better
land, are going to have disposable income. Both markets are "free",
only who sets the rules changed.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Ofc, what the US administration and other politicians are touting
as "tree trade" and "free markets" today are nothing of the sort.
"Free trade" and "free markets" require rules. Who sets the rules
will decide what the market is like.
--
Imagine that there is plenty of water for everyone, and plenty of good
land.
What rules are required then?
While there may be plenty of water in the river, it takes labor and
materials to build and maintain a canal system. The canal owner will not
rationally provide plenty of water for everyone, for the price of water
would be too low to repay his efforts on the canal.
But, as you say, imagine that happens. Then the canal doesn't provide
enough return to be worth owning, as the price of water would fall to
near zero. There are several different things that might happen. First,
the canal owner might decide to provide less water by operating the
canal at less than full capacity. Second, the canal owner might try to
increase the demand for water by finding new uses or users for it.
Getting new settlers for the "plenty of good land", for example. Third,
the canal owner might try to get a flat fee payment from the farmers to
support his canal, rather than rely on a free market for water. Lastly,
the canal owner might abandon his canal, as it doesn't feed his family,
and take up something else.
Which option the canal owner might follow depends on what rules are in
place, and who makes the rules.
But if there is a river with plenty of water, and plenty of good land,
then each farmer can build a canal to irrigate his own land. There are no
canal owners who are not farmers, and no farmers who are not canal owners.
So there is no need for rules to govern the interaction between canal
owners and farmers, since they are the same person.
There might be canal builders, who don't farm, and farmers, who don't
build canals. But the interaction of these two groups would require no
rules; it would be an actual free market as described above. Each would
be free to exchange labor at whatever rate suits them, or not.
If market participants are roughly equal in in all respects, then making
rules for the market is fairly trivial.

Most real world examples are between non-equal participants. That means
who makes the rules for the markets is a very important question.
--
Phil Hays
Peder B. Pels
2007-12-27 07:41:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
In the not distant enough future, a few Lear jets can easily burn up
all the bio leaving zero (0) food as well as zero (0) fuel for the rest
of us.
That's ridiculous.
Oh? Why?
Do I really have to explain why?

Because without living, working, functioning employees, corps such as
Walmart are NOTHING.
Post by Phil Hays
Biofuels put food (fuel) for Lear jets in the same marketplace as the food
the poor buy. That is an old story, common back when horsepower was real
horses. Bad year, and the horses the Barron and his household rode were
not going to starve, so some people needed to starve. Only so much food.
Barron pays cash.
If there is any semblance of a market economy left in an arbitrary far
future, and even assuming the buzzword-drived adaptation fo biofuels
contiues at the dystopic pace you assume to make the original claim
true, there will still be lots of food left, albeit at a might higher
price than today. Supply and demand.
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
Markets do in fact, handle the shortage problem: By "load shedding"
entire populations of those who cannot afford to pay.
Only way that is possible is by letting a privileged elite take it all,
and that has very little to do with (free) markets, but more US-style
state corporatism and managed trade (NAFTA, GATT, FTAA, EU etc.).
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without rules.
The question is, who sets the rules?
How is that in any way relevant to what i have written?
--
regards , Peter B. P. http://titancity.com/blog , http://macplanet.dk
Washington D.C.: District of Criminals
"I dont drink anymore... of course, i don't drink any less, either!
Phil Hays
2007-12-27 19:53:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
In the not distant enough future, a few Lear jets can easily burn up
all the bio leaving zero (0) food as well as zero (0) fuel for the
rest of us.
That's ridiculous.
Oh? Why?
Do I really have to explain why?
Because without living, working, functioning employees, corps such as
Walmart are NOTHING.
Losing 10% or 20% of the employees in a bad year would be just like
layoffs. Amusing word, layoffs, at one time a worker on a layoff would be
waiting to be called back. Any more, layoffs are never hired back. Having
them starve to death wouldn't matter to the corporation. They were not
going to be hired back.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Phil Hays
Biofuels put food (fuel) for Lear jets in the same marketplace as the
food the poor buy. That is an old story, common back when horsepower
was real horses. Bad year, and the horses the Barron and his household
rode were not going to starve, so some people needed to starve. Only so
much food. Barron pays cash.
If there is any semblance of a market economy left in an arbitrary far
future, and even assuming the buzzword-drived adaptation fo biofuels
contiues at the dystopic pace you assume to make the original claim
true, there will still be lots of food left, albeit at a might higher
price than today. Supply and demand.
Far future? This already is happening in a small way. Market price for
corn has risen due to demand for ethanol production. Go to the countries
where you can tell who the poor are because they are skinny. There are
people there that can stay alive with $4 corn. Corn goes to $4.50, they
slowly starve. Corn goes to $8.00, they starve faster.

A simple matter of supply and demand. Your labor is worth $X in the
current marketplace. Price of corn goes up, and your labor isn't
automatically worth more. If $X doesn't buy enough corn or other food to
keep you alive, you die.

You assume that "there will still be lots of food left". Assuming your
conclusion isn't a very compelling argument.
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Phil Hays
Post by Peder B. Pels
Post by Bret Cahill
Markets do in fact, handle the shortage problem: By "load shedding"
entire populations of those who cannot afford to pay.
Only way that is possible is by letting a privileged elite take it
all, and that has very little to do with (free) markets, but more
US-style state corporatism and managed trade (NAFTA, GATT, FTAA, EU
etc.).
"Free markets" have rules. Need to, can't run a free market without
rules. The question is, who sets the rules?
How is that in any way relevant to what i have written?
"Free markets" can describe a lot of different ways of doing things.
--
Phil Hays
Fred Weiss
2007-12-27 04:42:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant - the
cost of preventing and/or reversing it would be infinite, that is, it
will be the cost of dealing with the non-existent. It will be like the
cost of eradicating ghosts.

In other words, whatever will be done will be useless, so assuming it
was seriously thought we had to "do something" about it - and when it
is seen that nothing we do makes the slightest difference, just as
people will continue to "see ghosts" no matter what is done (in fact,
arguably, since it is nothing more than mass hysteria, the more that
is done the more ghosts that will be seen) - the cost will simply
mount astronomically, achieving absolutely nothing except destroying
the economy.

The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.

Fred Weiss
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 06:22:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant -
State of denial.

. . .
Post by Fred Weiss
The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.
Just keep on collectivizing costs and see what happens.


Bret Cahill
Fred Weiss
2007-12-27 10:47:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant -
State of denial.
Yours?

Fred Weiss
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 14:56:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant -
State of denial.
Yours?
Yours. You have a motive: It exposes right wing economic scams.

I have no motive. I don't get gummint contracts or any other money to
hype AGW.

I have no personal economic interest in it other than my own survival.

Moreover, I already tossed the most effective monkey wrench into the
"free marketry" rhetoric of the GOP. I plan to eventually take credit
for forcing the GOP to abandon "marketry" rhetoric for jingoistic
rhetoric.

So I don't need AGW or peak oil.

I might even be a little jealous of AGW and peak oil raining on my
"free speech" parade.

In fact, I even tell Democrats, "hey, use free speech first to expose
Republicon economic scams _then_ address AGW and peak oil."


Bret Cahill
Miller
2007-12-27 10:52:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant - the
cost of preventing and/or reversing it would be infinite, that is, it
will be the cost of dealing with the non-existent. It will be like the
cost of eradicating ghosts.
In other words, whatever will be done will be useless, so assuming it
was seriously thought we had to "do something" about it - and when it
is seen that nothing we do makes the slightest difference, just as
people will continue to "see ghosts" no matter what is done (in fact,
arguably, since it is nothing more than mass hysteria, the more that
is done the more ghosts that will be seen) - the cost will simply
mount astronomically, achieving absolutely nothing except destroying
the economy.
The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.
Fred Weiss
If the Left "feeds on misery" and AGW is a phantom menace, then what point
is there in the Left warning about it? If it never happens, then the Left
will not only have no "food", but they will be shown to be wrong and
uncountable loose adherents. It sounds like a lost cause for them. No
gain.

On the other hand, if its real, there are many others who will profit, at
least in the short term.

Scott
Eeyore
2007-12-27 11:08:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Miller
If the Left "feeds on misery" and AGW is a phantom menace, then what point
is there in the Left warning about it?
So they can raise taxes and limit our freedoms of course.

Graham
tg
2007-12-27 12:16:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Miller
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant - the
cost of preventing and/or reversing it would be infinite, that is, it
will be the cost of dealing with the non-existent. It will be like the
cost of eradicating ghosts.
In other words, whatever will be done will be useless, so assuming it
was seriously thought we had to "do something" about it - and when it
is seen that nothing we do makes the slightest difference, just as
people will continue to "see ghosts" no matter what is done (in fact,
arguably, since it is nothing more than mass hysteria, the more that
is done the more ghosts that will be seen) - the cost will simply
mount astronomically, achieving absolutely nothing except destroying
the economy.
The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.
Fred Weiss
If the Left "feeds on misery" and AGW is a phantom menace, then what point
is there in the Left warning about it? If it never happens, then the Left
will not only have no "food", but they will be shown to be wrong and
uncountable loose adherents. It sounds like a lost cause for them. No
gain.
On the other hand, if its real, there are many others who will profit, at
least in the short term.
Scott
Well, lots of replies but no anwers, eh.

It seems to me also that it is simply the case that some will lose and
some will win---no matter which choice.

But so far, all these doom-criers say that the economy will collapse
if we increase gas mileage on cars, without explaining how.

What are "The Costs" ??? How will "The Economy Be Damaged" ???

Come on all you geniuses and economics experts----let's hear it.

-tg
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 13:58:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Miller
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant - the
cost of preventing and/or reversing it would be infinite, that is, it
will be the cost of dealing with the non-existent. It will be like the
cost of eradicating ghosts.
In other words, whatever will be done will be useless, so assuming it
was seriously thought we had to "do something" about it - and when it
is seen that nothing we do makes the slightest difference, just as
people will continue to "see ghosts" no matter what is done (in fact,
arguably, since it is nothing more than mass hysteria, the more that
is done the more ghosts that will be seen) - the cost will simply
mount astronomically, achieving absolutely nothing except destroying
the economy.
The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.
Fred Weiss
If the Left "feeds on misery" and AGW is a phantom menace, then what point
is there in the Left warning about it? �If it never happens, then the Left
will not only have no "food", but they will be shown to be wrong and
uncountable loose adherents. �It sounds like a lost cause for them. �No
gain.
On the other hand, if its real, there are many others who will profit, at
least in the short term.
Scott
Well, lots of replies but no anwers, eh.
It seems to me also that it is simply the case that some will lose and
some will win---no matter which choice.
But so far, all these doom-criers say that the economy will collapse
if we increase gas mileage on cars, without explaining how.
What are "The Costs" ??? �How will "The Economy Be Damaged" ???
Come on all you geniuses and economics experts----let's hear it.
-tg- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 14:44:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Miller
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant - the
cost of preventing and/or reversing it would be infinite, that is, it
will be the cost of dealing with the non-existent. It will be like the
cost of eradicating ghosts.
In other words, whatever will be done will be useless, so assuming it
was seriously thought we had to "do something" about it - and when it
is seen that nothing we do makes the slightest difference, just as
people will continue to "see ghosts" no matter what is done (in fact,
arguably, since it is nothing more than mass hysteria, the more that
is done the more ghosts that will be seen) - the cost will simply
mount astronomically, achieving absolutely nothing except destroying
the economy.
The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.
Fred Weiss
If the Left "feeds on misery" and AGW is a phantom menace, then what point
is there in the Left warning about it? �If it never happens, then the Left
will not only have no "food", but they will be shown to be wrong and
uncountable loose adherents. �It sounds like a lost cause for them. �No
gain.
On the other hand, if its real, there are many others who will profit, at
least in the short term.
Scott
Well, lots of replies but no anwers, eh.
It seems to me also that it is simply the case that some will lose and
some will win---no matter which choice.
But so far, all these doom-criers say that the economy will collapse
if we increase gas mileage on cars, without explaining how.
What are "The Costs" ??? �How will "The Economy Be Damaged" ???
Come on all you geniuses and economics experts----let's hear it.
If leaders in the public and/or private sector get everyone working on
sustainable carbon free energy as necessary, it will employ more
people than denying AGW or peak oil and sitting around doing nothing
hoping inaction will somehow solve the problem.

The economy may be worse than now -- it probably will be for some
groups -- but it will employ more people than the inaction that is
preferred by the deniers.

The economist Henry George argued that land wasn't the product of
human labor. All of it was ultimately acquired by force or fraud.
Since free marketry types claim to oppose force and fraud, land should
therefore be taxed at full rental value.

A fortiori, a _consumable_ geo resource like oil needs to be taxed at
an infinite rate for sustainability.


Bret Cahill


"We hit the jackpot."

-- the Gipper using "we" in a way he knew would be misunderstood to
meam "the people."
tg
2007-12-27 16:05:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by tg
Post by Miller
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Well, since there is no AGW - or it is vanishingly insignificant - the
cost of preventing and/or reversing it would be infinite, that is, it
will be the cost of dealing with the non-existent. It will be like the
cost of eradicating ghosts.
In other words, whatever will be done will be useless, so assuming it
was seriously thought we had to "do something" about it - and when it
is seen that nothing we do makes the slightest difference, just as
people will continue to "see ghosts" no matter what is done (in fact,
arguably, since it is nothing more than mass hysteria, the more that
is done the more ghosts that will be seen) - the cost will simply
mount astronomically, achieving absolutely nothing except destroying
the economy.
The Left however will be happy since they feed on misery and the more
the misery the more they can justify their dream of dictatorship - and
the guillotines and the bloody mass slaughter which will accompany it.
Fred Weiss
If the Left "feeds on misery" and AGW is a phantom menace, then what point
is there in the Left warning about it? �If it never happens, then the Left
will not only have no "food", but they will be shown to be wrong and
uncountable loose adherents. �It sounds like a lost cause for them. �No
gain.
On the other hand, if its real, there are many others who will profit, at
least in the short term.
Scott
Well, lots of replies but no anwers, eh.
It seems to me also that it is simply the case that some will lose and
some will win---no matter which choice.
But so far, all these doom-criers say that the economy will collapse
if we increase gas mileage on cars, without explaining how.
What are "The Costs" ??? �How will "The Economy Be Damaged" ???
Come on all you geniuses and economics experts----let's hear it.
If leaders in the public and/or private sector get everyone working on
sustainable carbon free energy as necessary, it will employ more
people than denying AGW or peak oil and sitting around doing nothing
hoping inaction will somehow solve the problem.
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???

I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.

What does it mean?

-tg
Post by Bret Cahill
-- it probably will be for some
groups -- but it will employ more people than the inaction that is
preferred by the deniers.
The economist Henry George argued that land wasn't the product of
human labor. All of it was ultimately acquired by force or fraud.
Since free marketry types claim to oppose force and fraud, land should
therefore be taxed at full rental value.
A fortiori, a _consumable_ geo resource like oil needs to be taxed at
an infinite rate for sustainability.
Bret Cahill
"We hit the jackpot."
-- the Gipper using "we" in a way he knew would be misunderstood to
meam "the people."
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 17:28:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???
I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.
What does it mean?
a. Not being able to take a Sunday drive w/o thinking about fuel
costs.

b. Not being able to drive to work.

c. starving to death

d. Al Gore not being able to fly his fat sanctimonious ass around in
corp. jets.

Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.

But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.


Bret Cahill


"Without O'Hare it's sheer dispair."

-- Saul Bellow _Herzog_
tg
2007-12-27 19:41:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???
I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.
What does it mean?
a. Not being able to take a Sunday drive w/o thinking about fuel
costs.
b. Not being able to drive to work.
c. starving to death
d. Al Gore not being able to fly his fat sanctimonious ass around in
corp. jets.
Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.
But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.
First, this doesn't answer my question. What I mean is GDP goes up or
down, and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.

Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.

-tg
Post by Bret Cahill
Bret Cahill
"Without O'Hare it's sheer dispair."
-- Saul Bellow _Herzog_
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-27 19:49:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
First, this doesn't answer my question. What I mean is GDP goes up or
down, and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
You are asking a question with an unqualified premise. But for the
assumption that 'doing something about it' means a new industry for
higher mileage cars.

Can we dramatically reduce CO2 *and* grow economies? That would take a
radical change in what is meant by 'growth'.

This is not a simple question you pose.

So, the question is more academic than realistic. Especially considering
the state of economies today...
tg
2007-12-27 20:03:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
First, this doesn't answer my question. What I mean is GDP goes up or
down, and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
You are asking a question with an unqualified premise. But for the
assumption that 'doing something about it' means a new industry for
higher mileage cars.
Can we dramatically reduce CO2 *and* grow economies? That would take a
radical change in what is meant by 'growth'.
I am using the auto mileage as an example---I realize it is more
complex. But I have heard Our President say that the economy would be
harmed for example by Kyoto, and so I would like to understand what
that harm would be.

So what *is* meant by growth, and how would reducing CO2 affect it?

-tg
Post by Dan Bloomquist
This is not a simple question you pose.
So, the question is more academic than realistic. Especially considering
the state of economies today...
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-27 20:16:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
First, this doesn't answer my question. What I mean is GDP goes up or
down, and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
You are asking a question with an unqualified premise. But for the
assumption that 'doing something about it' means a new industry for
higher mileage cars.
Can we dramatically reduce CO2 *and* grow economies? That would take a
radical change in what is meant by 'growth'.
I am using the auto mileage as an example---I realize it is more
complex. But I have heard Our President say that the economy would be
harmed for example by Kyoto, and so I would like to understand what
that harm would be.
The last thing I would do is to pretend to speak for Bush.
Post by tg
So what *is* meant by growth, and how would reducing CO2 affect it?
In today's paradigm, growth means new production and new consumption. A
direct contradiction to reducing CO2. As long as the Chines keep taking
the moneys of consumers for their trinkets, they will strive to grow
production and the consumption of energy. The rest of the world will not
have to answer for that CO2. And now they are stuck with it because the
migrant worker has tasted the fruit. They now have to create some 25
million new jobs a year to keep the masses quelled.
ta
2007-12-27 20:33:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
First, this doesn't answer my question. What I mean is GDP goes up or
down, and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
You are asking a question with an unqualified premise. But for the
assumption that 'doing something about it' means a new industry for
higher mileage cars.
Can we dramatically reduce CO2 *and* grow economies? That would take a
radical change in what is meant by 'growth'.
I am using the auto mileage as an example---I realize it is more
complex. But I have heard Our President say that the economy would be
harmed for example by Kyoto, and so I would like to understand what
that harm would be.
The last thing I would do is to pretend to speak for Bush.
Post by tg
So what *is* meant by growth, and how would reducing CO2 affect it?
In today's paradigm, growth means new production and new consumption. A
direct contradiction to reducing CO2. As long as the Chines keep taking
the moneys of consumers for their trinkets, they will strive to grow
production and the consumption of energy. The rest of the world will not
have to answer for that CO2. And now they are stuck with it because the
migrant worker has tasted the fruit. They now have to create some 25
million new jobs a year to keep the masses quelled.
According to the Chinese gummint, 70% of the Chinese people will own
cars in five years.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/english/200011/27/eng20001127_56267.html

As if they don't already have pollution problems.

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Beijing_to_ban_a_million_cars_in_cl_07042007.html
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 20:36:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Can we dramatically reduce CO2 *and* grow economies? That would take a
radical change in what is meant by 'growth'.
I am using the auto mileage as an example---I realize it is more
complex. But I have heard Our President say that the economy would be
harmed for example by Kyoto, and so I would like to understand what
that harm would be.
The last thing I would do is to pretend to speak for Bush.
Post by tg
So what *is* meant by growth, and how would reducing CO2 affect it?
In today's paradigm, growth means new production and new consumption.
The rightard version of growth is irreversible reactions.

Irreversible reactions of course less freedom, less options.
Post by Dan Bloomquist
A
direct contradiction to reducing CO2.
Not just the poor but the rich who are hoping for solutions from Gore
are is a State of Denial.
Post by Dan Bloomquist
As long as the Chines keep taking
the moneys of consumers for their trinkets, they will strive to grow
production and the consumption of energy. The rest of the world will not
have to answer for that CO2. And now they are stuck with it because the
migrant worker has tasted the fruit. They now have to create some 25
million new jobs a year to keep the masses quelled.
It's utterly insane and there's no escape from it.


Bret Cahill
tg
2007-12-27 21:38:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
First, this doesn't answer my question. What I mean is GDP goes up or
down, and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
You are asking a question with an unqualified premise. But for the
assumption that 'doing something about it' means a new industry for
higher mileage cars.
Can we dramatically reduce CO2 *and* grow economies? That would take a
radical change in what is meant by 'growth'.
I am using the auto mileage as an example---I realize it is more
complex. But I have heard Our President say that the economy would be
harmed for example by Kyoto, and so I would like to understand what
that harm would be.
The last thing I would do is to pretend to speak for Bush.
Why? He does it all the time.
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
So what *is* meant by growth, and how would reducing CO2 affect it?
In today's paradigm, growth means new production and new consumption. A
direct contradiction to reducing CO2. As long as the Chines keep taking
the moneys of consumers for their trinkets, they will strive to grow
production and the consumption of energy. The rest of the world will not
have to answer for that CO2. And now they are stuck with it because the
migrant worker has tasted the fruit. They now have to create some 25
million new jobs a year to keep the masses quelled.
I guess the people who are saying the sky will fall if we have better
gas mileage don't have any economic theory to back them up, even at
the usual level of absurdity.

-tg
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-27 21:46:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
I guess the people who are saying the sky will fall if we have better
gas mileage don't have any economic theory to back them up, even at
the usual level of absurdity.
I haven't seen anybody say this. Sounds like a strawman to me....
tg
2007-12-27 23:33:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by tg
I guess the people who are saying the sky will fall if we have better
gas mileage don't have any economic theory to back them up, even at
the usual level of absurdity.
I haven't seen anybody say this. Sounds like a strawman to me....
This is a crossposting after all, so I can't make a definitive
analysis of your sincerity. You have your loons and I have mine.

-tg
Fred Weiss
2007-12-27 23:53:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
I guess the people who are saying the sky will fall if we have better
gas mileage don't have any economic theory to back them up, even at
the usual level of absurdity.
As someone seems to have already pointed out this of course is a
strawman. No one is against "better gas mileage". The question is how
it is achieved, with what trade-offs, and at what cost.

As the price of gasoline rises, the market doesn't need the gov't to
mandate better mpg. People on their own will choose cars with better
mpg.

Btw, if you want more cars with better mpg, eliminate all tariffs and
trade restraints on imported cars. I note that none of the leftards
suggested that simple solution which would cost us absolutely nothing.

Well, ok, it will put the American car manufacturers out of business.
But that should have happened years ago anyway and its time that we
stopped subsidizing them and put them out of their misery.

Fred Weiss
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-28 00:38:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Btw, if you want more cars with better mpg, eliminate all tariffs and
trade restraints on imported cars. I note that none of the leftards
suggested that simple solution which would cost us absolutely nothing.
Toyota:
# Buffalo, W. Va.; a power-train production plant;
# Cambridge, Ontario, Canada; an assembly plant;
# Delta, British Columbia, Canada; an aluminum wheel plant;
# Fremont, Calif.; a joint-venture assembly plant, New United Motor
Manufacturing Inc., which is co-owned with General Motors;
# Georgetown, Ky.; two assembly plants;
# Princeton, Ind.; an assembly plant; and
# St. Louis and Troy, Mo.; an aluminum parts plant. In addition, the
automaker is adding two more locations to its North American portfolio:
# Huntsville, Ala., where an engine plant will open in 2004;

There are no tariffs on much of Toyota's stake.

I see now that you are also a partisan idiot. But, if you are a
rightard, why would you condone the loss of a U.S. production base? Do
you really want to see more of this?

<http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax>

Oh, it most definitely cost us something...
Bret Cahill
2007-12-28 04:07:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
Btw, if you want more cars with better mpg, eliminate all tariffs and
trade restraints on imported cars. I note that none of the leftards
suggested that simple solution which would cost us absolutely nothing.
# Buffalo, W. Va.; a power-train production plant;
# Cambridge, Ontario, Canada; an assembly plant;
# Delta, British Columbia, Canada; an aluminum wheel plant;
# Fremont, Calif.; a joint-venture assembly plant, New United Motor
Manufacturing Inc., which is co-owned with General Motors;
# Georgetown, Ky.; two assembly plants;
# Princeton, Ind.; an assembly plant; and
# St. Louis and Troy, Mo.; an aluminum parts plant. In addition, the
# Huntsville, Ala., where an engine plant will open in 2004;
There are no tariffs on much of Toyota's stake.
I see now that you are also a partisan idiot.
He claims to be a lofty Randroid but he parrots Reagan era boilerplate
abandoned by Karl Rove in favor of jingoism.
Post by Dan Bloomquist
But, if you are a
rightard, why would you condone the loss of a U.S. production base? Do
you really want to see more of this?
<http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax>
� Oh, it most definitely cost us something...
Randroids have no problem with destroying the U. S.

The U. S. is nothing more than globalism road kill that deserves to
die.


Bret Cahill
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-28 05:45:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
He claims to be a lofty Randroid but he parrots Reagan era boilerplate
abandoned by Karl Rove in favor of jingoism.
And you sound like a babbling idiot.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-28 14:17:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Bret Cahill
He claims to be a lofty Randroid but he parrots Reagan era boilerplate
abandoned by Karl Rove in favor of jingoism.
And you
And you are clueless as to U. S. national politics.


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 05:25:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Randroids have no problem with destroying the U. S.
The U. S. is nothing more than globalism road kill that deserves to
die.
True. Very True
Fred Weiss
2007-12-28 14:31:55 UTC
Permalink
...why would you condone the loss of a U.S. production base?
As someone who has a good antenna for a strawman, why would you raise
one of your own?

We all should do what we are most efficient/competitive at. This has
been a well-established principle of economics for over 150 years -
see David Ricardo's "Law of Comparative Advantage".

We long ago stopped being efficient/competitive in the manufacture of
automobiles - thanks in no small measure to the UAW.

As for Toyota, the reasons are complex and various why they
manufacture in the US - as do other foreign car manufacturers. Right
now it is very advantageous to them due to the cheap dollar. However
when most of the plants were first built I think it was mainly to get
around trade restrictions on imports.

It gains us nothing - absolutely nothing - to manufacture products
which we can import more cheaply. The savings we realize on the
imports we can spend on other things, many of which will be made here
and which American companies will rush in to satisfy.

Btw, in addition to eliminating all tariffs and trade restraints on
imported cars, I would also eliminate all regulations on their
manufacture. If someone wants to produce a "tin can" on wheels which
gets 90mpg, let them. Let the insurance companies sort out the
premiums for cars which will end up pancakes in serious accidents.
(That of course will be offset by the much lower replacement cost of
such cars). This, too, is not a recommendation one would expect to
hear from the leftard side of this debate. When given a choice between
freedom and choice vs. gov't control and/or subsidies, you know which
they will always prefer.

Fred Weiss
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-28 15:44:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
...why would you condone the loss of a U.S. production base?
As someone who has a good antenna for a strawman, why would you raise
one of your own?
Good christ Fred, go back and read what you wrote. No strawman here...
Post by Fred Weiss
We all should do what we are most efficient/competitive at. This has
been a well-established principle of economics for over 150 years -
see David Ricardo's "Law of Comparative Advantage".
See the BBC documentary, 'The Century of the Self'. It was pretty
obvious that we should have started fixing this in the seventies. What
'we should have done' is just that. Here we are now.
Post by Fred Weiss
We long ago stopped being efficient/competitive in the manufacture of
automobiles - thanks in no small measure to the UAW.
Right, it was all the working class's fault.
Post by Fred Weiss
As for Toyota, the reasons are complex and various why they
manufacture in the US - as do other foreign car manufacturers. Right
now it is very advantageous to them due to the cheap dollar. However
when most of the plants were first built I think it was mainly to get
around trade restrictions on imports.
See 'dollar yen' and explain 'cheap dollar'. Japan has been in a real
pickle for the last couple of decades.
Post by Fred Weiss
It gains us nothing - absolutely nothing - to manufacture products
which we can import more cheaply. The savings we realize on the
imports we can spend on other things, many of which will be made here
and which American companies will rush in to satisfy.
You are kidding, right?
<http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax>
Post by Fred Weiss
Btw, in addition to eliminating all tariffs and trade restraints on
imported cars, I would also eliminate all regulations on their
manufacture. If someone wants to produce a "tin can" on wheels which
gets 90mpg, let them. Let the insurance companies sort out the
premiums for cars which will end up pancakes in serious accidents.
(That of course will be offset by the much lower replacement cost of
such cars). This, too, is not a recommendation one would expect to
hear from the leftard side of this debate. When given a choice between
freedom and choice vs. gov't control and/or subsidies, you know which
they will always prefer.
My son drives a TDI Jetta that gets better than 50 mpg and there is
nothing dangerous about that vehicle. You are creating another strawman.
And apparently for a partisan agenda.
tg
2007-12-28 16:26:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
...why would you condone the loss of a U.S. production base?
As someone who has a good antenna for a strawman, why would you raise
one of your own?
Good christ Fred, go back and read what you wrote. No strawman here...
Post by Fred Weiss
We all should do what we are most efficient/competitive at. This has
been a well-established principle of economics for over 150 years -
see David Ricardo's "Law of Comparative Advantage".
See the BBC documentary, 'The Century of the Self'. It was pretty
obvious that we should have started fixing this in the seventies. What
'we should have done' is just that. Here we are now.
Post by Fred Weiss
We long ago stopped being efficient/competitive in the manufacture of
automobiles - thanks in no small measure to the UAW.
Right, it was all the working class's fault.
Post by Fred Weiss
As for Toyota, the reasons are complex and various why they
manufacture in the US - as do other foreign car manufacturers. Right
now it is very advantageous to them due to the cheap dollar. However
when most of the plants were first built I think it was mainly to get
around trade restrictions on imports.
See 'dollar yen' and explain 'cheap dollar'. Japan has been in a real
pickle for the last couple of decades.
Post by Fred Weiss
It gains us nothing - absolutely nothing - to manufacture products
which we can import more cheaply. The savings we realize on the
imports we can spend on other things, many of which will be made here
and which American companies will rush in to satisfy.
You are kidding, right?
<http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax>
Post by Fred Weiss
Btw, in addition to eliminating all tariffs and trade restraints on
imported cars, I would also eliminate all regulations on their
manufacture. If someone wants to produce a "tin can" on wheels which
gets 90mpg, let them. Let the insurance companies sort out the
premiums for cars which will end up pancakes in serious accidents.
(That of course will be offset by the much lower replacement cost of
such cars). This, too, is not a recommendation one would expect to
hear from the leftard side of this debate. When given a choice between
freedom and choice vs. gov't control and/or subsidies, you know which
they will always prefer.
My son drives a TDI Jetta that gets better than 50 mpg and there is
nothing dangerous about that vehicle. You are creating another strawman.
And apparently for a partisan agenda.
So do you still think that my claim that some believe the sky will
fall if the government imposes higher mileage standards is a strawman?

-tg
Fred Weiss
2007-12-28 17:12:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
We all should do what we are most efficient/competitive at. This has
been a well-established principle of economics for over 150 years -
see David Ricardo's "Law of Comparative Advantage".
See the BBC documentary, 'The Century of the Self'. It was pretty
obvious that we should have started fixing this in the seventies. What
'we should have done' is just that. Here we are now.
I don't know what you - or they - think "we should have done". There
are no such "shoulds" in economics. The only "should" is that the
market should determine what is or isn't done in terms of the greatest
efficiencies and highest returns. That's to the best interest of
everyone - even those who may be hurt by it in the very short term.
Many new opportunities were opened to buggy makers with the advent of
the automobile, some no doubt far more lucrative.
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
We long ago stopped being efficient/competitive in the manufacture of
automobiles - thanks in no small measure to the UAW.
Right, it was all the working class's fault.
The "working class"? No. The unions, yes. Along with onerous gov't
regulations, they have destroyed whole industries and sent others
overseas to save their businesses from bankruptcy.

A relative handful of workers have benefited at the expense of all the
rest who lost their jobs - and of course we, the rest of the
population, who have been forced to subsidize it, in effect to pay
tribute to union blackmail and thuggery.

But at least some workers are finally getting the picture that unions
are a death sentence which is why union membership is under 15% of the
workforce (and a lot of that is gov't workers).

(The best and most ambitious workers don't need unions. Their skills
and high motivation will always be in demand and the best companies
will eagerly pay for it - and if they don't, they can always find
companies that will, or they go into business for themselves. Unions
exist to protect the incompetent and slackers which is why unionized
companies/industries are among the least productive and profitable,
e.g the airlines, the auto manufacturers, chain supermarkets, not to
mention the USPS and the public schools.)
Post by Dan Bloomquist
See 'dollar yen' and explain 'cheap dollar'. Japan has been in a real
pickle for the last couple of decades.
Your info on Japan is a little outdated. Their economy has been on the
mend in recent years and the yen relatively strong against the dollar.

Btw, do you remember the widespread fears - even outright hysteria -
a couple of decades ago that Japan was "buying up" the USA? Nothing
came of it of course and we no longer hear yapping about gov't/
industry "partnership" which was supposedly the successful Japanese
model but which was revealed to be nothing more than cronyism.
Post by Dan Bloomquist
My son drives a TDI Jetta that gets better than 50 mpg and there is
nothing dangerous about that vehicle. You are creating another strawman.
And apparently for a partisan agenda.
A new Jetta starts at over $15,000 and can quickly go over $20,000. I
was thinking of something that might go for as little as $5,000 and no
more than $10,000.

Incidentally, I wasn't commenting negatively about the safety issue.
That's a matter of personal choice, so long as you are not endangering
others. If you are willing to take the chance of being flattened like
pancake in an accident, that should be your choice.

I was merely noting that a high - even *very* high - mpg car should be
relatively easy to manufacture but it may require making it very
lightweight, hence my description of it as a "tin can on wheels". It
will undoubtedly however require dispensing with many gov't
regulations and many tariff and trade restraint agreements (and may
well have to be made in China) - which of course is why no leftard
will ever recommend such a course. When China was under Mao, maybe.
But certainly not now.

Fred Weiss
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-28 17:52:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
We all should do what we are most efficient/competitive at. This has
been a well-established principle of economics for over 150 years -
see David Ricardo's "Law of Comparative Advantage".
See the BBC documentary, 'The Century of the Self'. It was pretty
obvious that we should have started fixing this in the seventies. What
'we should have done' is just that. Here we are now.
I don't know what you - or they - think "we should have done". There
are no such "shoulds" in economics. The only "should" is that the
market should determine what is or isn't done in terms of the greatest
efficiencies and highest returns. That's to the best interest of
everyone - even those who may be hurt by it in the very short term.
Many new opportunities were opened to buggy makers with the advent of
the automobile, some no doubt far more lucrative.
You are mixing apples, (markets), and oranges, (macro economics).
Markets are human driven. They are opportunistic and myopic. They work
well as long as resources can be treated as limitless. Economies only
work properly as long as their is a semblance of growth. Now, as far as
the should'a, we should'a never taken this civilization to our present
condition. But just like markets, the world is driven by human nature
and here we are.

If you don't think we are about to face an enormous challenge, you
simply have not looked at the numbers.
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
We long ago stopped being efficient/competitive in the manufacture of
automobiles - thanks in no small measure to the UAW.
Right, it was all the working class's fault.
The "working class"? No. The unions, yes. Along with onerous gov't
regulations, they have destroyed whole industries and sent others
overseas to save their businesses from bankruptcy.
So, you don't shop at walmart?
Post by Fred Weiss
A relative handful of workers have benefited at the expense of all the
rest who lost their jobs - and of course we, the rest of the
population, who have been forced to subsidize it, in effect to pay
tribute to union blackmail and thuggery.
Wow. So it is the 'union's' fault we have multinationals? I would'a
never thought...
Post by Fred Weiss
But at least some workers are finally getting the picture that unions
are a death sentence which is why union membership is under 15% of the
workforce (and a lot of that is gov't workers).
You seem to have a fixation about unions.
Post by Fred Weiss
(The best and most ambitious workers don't need unions. Their skills
and high motivation will always be in demand and the best companies
will eagerly pay for it - and if they don't, they can always find
companies that will, or they go into business for themselves. Unions
exist to protect the incompetent and slackers which is why unionized
companies/industries are among the least productive and profitable,
e.g the airlines, the auto manufacturers, chain supermarkets, not to
mention the USPS and the public schools.)
Unions, just as any institution, can become corrupt. But there is
nothing wrong with the principle. The textile workers of past were good
hard working people.
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Dan Bloomquist
See 'dollar yen' and explain 'cheap dollar'. Japan has been in a real
pickle for the last couple of decades.
Your info on Japan is a little outdated. Their economy has been on the
mend in recent years and the yen relatively strong against the dollar.
It is trading in the same range as ten years ago. What do you have in mind?
Post by Fred Weiss
Btw, do you remember the widespread fears - even outright hysteria -
a couple of decades ago that Japan was "buying up" the USA? Nothing
came of it of course and we no longer hear yapping about gov't/
industry "partnership" which was supposedly the successful Japanese
model but which was revealed to be nothing more than cronyism.
What's your point?
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Dan Bloomquist
My son drives a TDI Jetta that gets better than 50 mpg and there is
nothing dangerous about that vehicle. You are creating another strawman.
And apparently for a partisan agenda.
A new Jetta starts at over $15,000 and can quickly go over $20,000. I
was thinking of something that might go for as little as $5,000 and no
more than $10,000.
Why? Small efficient cars are already much cheaper than large SUVs.
Post by Fred Weiss
Incidentally, I wasn't commenting negatively about the safety issue.
That's a matter of personal choice, so long as you are not endangering
others. If you are willing to take the chance of being flattened like
pancake in an accident, that should be your choice.
Again, what is your point?
Post by Fred Weiss
I was merely noting that a high - even *very* high - mpg car should be
relatively easy to manufacture but it may require making it very
lightweight, hence my description of it as a "tin can on wheels". It
will undoubtedly however require dispensing with many gov't
regulations and many tariff and trade restraint agreements (and may
well have to be made in China) - which of course is why no leftard
will ever recommend such a course. When China was under Mao, maybe.
But certainly not now.
I really don't get the point. There are inexpensive efficient cars on
the market right now. Man you can rattle on......
Fred Weiss
2007-12-28 18:39:26 UTC
Permalink
Markets are human driven....They work
well as long as resources can be treated as limitless.
Which is precisely how you can treat most of them - so long of course
as innovative new technologies are applied to them, which is only
possible under capitalism.
Post by Fred Weiss
The "working class"? No. The unions, yes. Along with onerous gov't
regulations, they have destroyed whole industries and sent others
overseas to save their businesses from bankruptcy.
So, you don't shop at walmart?
Actually, no, not much, but what's your point?
Post by Fred Weiss
A relative handful of workers have benefited at the expense of all the
rest who lost their jobs - and of course we, the rest of the
population, who have been forced to subsidize it, in effect to pay
tribute to union blackmail and thuggery.
Wow. So it is the 'union's' fault we have multinationals? I would'a
never thought...
Fault? What fault? What's wrong with "multinationals"? And what do
unions have to do with it, anyway? Yes, many companies have gone
overseas to avoid them but there are any number of other reasons why a
company may do it. The point is that there would undoubtedly be many
companies still with their prime manufacturing in the USA *except for
labor unions* which drive up the cost of labor. This is even apart
from the many companies entirely driven out of business by unions.
Post by Fred Weiss
But at least some workers are finally getting the picture that unions
are a death sentence which is why union membership is under 15% of the
workforce (and a lot of that is gov't workers).
You seem to have a fixation about unions.
True. I loathe them. I'm hoping their history will someday be written
demonstrating their overall detriment to economies and how on balance
they have actually *hurt* the workers they were supposed to be
helping.
Unions, just as any institution, can become corrupt. But there is
nothing wrong with the principle. The textile workers of past were good
hard working people.
I agree. It didn't have to be what it became and need not be in the
future. Unions were originally set-up as "benevolent societies", not
in order to be in conflict with employers. It is unions which could be
offering unemployment and health insurance to their members, maybe
even retirement benefits. That way workers in a particular trade would
be in control of it themselves and it wouldn't be dependent on their
working for a single employer or on the vagaries of its financial
prospects.
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Dan Bloomquist
See 'dollar yen' and explain 'cheap dollar'. Japan has been in a real
pickle for the last couple of decades.
Your info on Japan is a little outdated. Their economy has been on the
mend in recent years and the yen relatively strong against the dollar.
It is trading in the same range as ten years ago. What do you have in mind?
That 10 years ago the dollar/yen ratio was 140 - coinciding with the
financial implosion of the so-called "Asian Tigers". Today it is 110.
I guess it depends on what you mean by "trading in the same range" or
the significance you give to a 20-25% difference in price.
I really don't get the point. There are inexpensive efficient cars on
the market right now. Man you can rattle on......
Dan, you were the one who chose to comment on my response to Tiggy's
babbling about the economic effects of gov't mandating mpg's. My point
was to suggest how the free market could handle it quite nicely *if
the gov't would get the fuck out of the way* - both with respect to
tariffs and trade restraints and gov't manufacturing regulations.

Fred Weiss.
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-28 19:19:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Markets are human driven....They work
well as long as resources can be treated as limitless.
Which is precisely how you can treat most of them - so long of course
as innovative new technologies are applied to them, which is only
possible under capitalism.
First, resources are limited. Second, technology doesn't trump
thermodynamics. This can not go on forever and is likely coming to an
end very soon. But you have to bother to crunch some numbers to see it.

Loading Image...

"In capitalism, man represses man. In socialism, its the other way
around" ~Unknown
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Fred Weiss
The "working class"? No. The unions, yes. Along with onerous gov't
regulations, they have destroyed whole industries and sent others
overseas to save their businesses from bankruptcy.
So, you don't shop at walmart?
Actually, no, not much, but what's your point?
Where do you think the bulk of walmart's labor resides?
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Fred Weiss
A relative handful of workers have benefited at the expense of all the
rest who lost their jobs - and of course we, the rest of the
population, who have been forced to subsidize it, in effect to pay
tribute to union blackmail and thuggery.
Wow. So it is the 'union's' fault we have multinationals? I would'a
never thought...
Fault? What fault? What's wrong with "multinationals"? And what do
unions have to do with it, anyway? Yes, many companies have gone
overseas to avoid them but there are any number of other reasons why a
company may do it. The point is that there would undoubtedly be many
companies still with their prime manufacturing in the USA *except for
labor unions* which drive up the cost of labor. This is even apart
from the many companies entirely driven out of business by unions.
Bzzzzzzzt. You are still playing the Union card. Multinationals go to
China because labor is a few bucks a day which has almost nothing to do
with unions.
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Fred Weiss
But at least some workers are finally getting the picture that unions
are a death sentence which is why union membership is under 15% of the
workforce (and a lot of that is gov't workers).
You seem to have a fixation about unions.
True. I loathe them.
Don't let your feelings get in the way of rational thinking...

<snip more union stuff>
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Dan Bloomquist
See 'dollar yen' and explain 'cheap dollar'. Japan has been in a real
pickle for the last couple of decades.
Your info on Japan is a little outdated. Their economy has been on the
mend in recent years and the yen relatively strong against the dollar.
It is trading in the same range as ten years ago. What do you have in mind?
That 10 years ago the dollar/yen ratio was 140 - coinciding with the
financial implosion of the so-called "Asian Tigers". Today it is 110.
I guess it depends on what you mean by "trading in the same range" or
the significance you give to a 20-25% difference in price.
06/12/1997 it traded for 114.3 and closed yesterday for 114. I get .2%
Post by Fred Weiss
I really don't get the point. There are inexpensive efficient cars on
the market right now. Man you can rattle on......
Dan, you were the one who chose to comment on my response to Tiggy's
babbling about the economic effects of gov't mandating mpg's. My point
was to suggest how the free market could handle it quite nicely *if
the gov't would get the fuck out of the way* - both with respect to
tariffs and trade restraints and gov't manufacturing regulations.
Again, my point is all your complaining about unions and government is
meaningless as those cars are available right now, with unions and
without mandates.
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 06:22:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Which is precisely how you can treat most of them - so long of course
as innovative new technologies are applied to them, which is only
possible under capitalism.
Absolutely. Those darn socialist Chinese can't innovate, and neither can
those darn socialist Japanese.

Ahahahahahahahahah....

Currently some 20% of IBM stafff work in India.
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 06:20:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
We all should do what we are most efficient/competitive at.
Sorry, that is usually impossible in a Capitalist system, where people are
trapped in jobs they are not particularly good at because it's the only work
they can find that pays a tollerable wage.

The fact of the matter is that virtually every AmeriKKKan works because
they must rather than because they wish to.

And that is why AmeriKKKans are slaves.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-28 04:01:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
People on their own will choose cars with better
mpg.
NPR put some idiot economist on a few days ago -- NPR often does this
on purpose knowing full well their idiot will be received as an idiot
-- saying that [non home made] presents aren't cost effective because
the receiver knows better than the giver as to what he wants.

This isn't always true. Presents are a way of communicating to the
receiver.

In fact I'm wearing a pullover I got decades ago but never wore
because I didn't like it. Finally, after all these years I thought it
was time to destroy it with pipe dope by wearing it to work.

Would you believe it? Everyone at work started wearing dopey looking
pullovers.

The dopey looking garment suddenly started to look good, even to me.

By my calculations I have enough dopey looking clothes to last until
the year 2525.


Bret Cahill
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-28 05:44:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
People on their own will choose cars with better
mpg.
NPR put some...
Why don't you reference? You are an idiot......
Bret Cahill
2007-12-28 14:14:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dan Bloomquist
Post by Fred Weiss
People on their own will choose cars with better
mpg.
NPR put some...
Why don't you reference?
I wasn't writing an appellate brief.

Next question?


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 06:17:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
As someone seems to have already pointed out this of course is a
strawman. No one is against "better gas mileage".
How about Exxon?
Eeyore
2007-12-29 11:45:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by V-for-Vendicar
Post by Fred Weiss
As someone seems to have already pointed out this of course is a
strawman. No one is against "better gas mileage".
How about Exxon?
What about them ?

Graham
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 13:20:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Eeyore
Post by V-for-Vendicar
Post by Fred Weiss
As someone seems to have already pointed out this of course is a
strawman. No one is against "better gas mileage".
How about Exxon?
What about them ?
The claim was that "No one is against "better gas mileage.""

The question translates to....

No one is against reduced fuel sales.

How about Exxon? Do you think the Exxon Corporation would oppose reduced
sales of it's product?
Bret Cahill
2007-12-29 15:05:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
As someone seems to have already pointed out this of course is a
strawman. No one is against "better gas mileage".
� How about Exxon?
How about Dick Cheney?


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 19:22:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by V-for-Vendicar
Post by Fred Weiss
As someone seems to have already pointed out this of course is a
strawman. No one is against "better gas mileage".
How about Exxon?
How about Dick Cheney?
And of course representatives of the AmeriKKKan automotive industry (not
the European, Japanese or Korean industries) have been lobbying congress
against raising
mileage standards for literally decades.
z
2007-12-27 19:57:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
Oh no, don't you understand? If we had more efficient cars, let alone
houses or industry, and therefore spent less on fuel for the same
results, we would all go bankrupt! I have the calculations right here,
under my assessment of the nuclear threat posed by Saddam Hussein, and
my calculations about how dropping the tax rate has raised government
revenue virtually eliminating the deficit, and how the war to depose
Hussein will pay for itself via petroleum production.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 20:39:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by z
Post by tg
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
Oh no, don't you understand? If we had more efficient cars, let alone
houses or industry, and therefore spent less on fuel for the same
results, we would all go bankrupt! I have the calculations right here,
under my assessment of the nuclear threat posed by Saddam Hussein, and
my calculations about how dropping the tax rate has raised government
revenue virtually eliminating the deficit, and how the war to depose
Hussein will pay for itself via petroleum production.
The fact that corp./monied interests are lying about better mpg
doesn't change the fact that better mpg isn't going to keep personal
transportation affordable.


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 05:13:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
The fact that corp./monied interests are lying about better mpg
doesn't change the fact that better mpg isn't going to keep personal
transportation affordable.
Well, certainly no where near as affordable as it has been.

The AmeriKKKan automotive Industry has no future.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-27 20:53:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???
I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.
What does it mean?
a.  Not being able to take a Sunday drive w/o thinking about fuel
costs.
b.  Not being able to drive to work.
c.  starving to death
d.  Al Gore not being able to fly his fat sanctimonious ass around in
corp. jets.
Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.
But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.
First, this doesn't answer my question.
You wanted to know how it would be worse.

Only one entity decides if it is worse.

The _people_.

People like to move around with the air blowing in their faces. This
is an irreversible consumption of mechanical energy and will soon come
to a end for most people.

If people cannot cruise around wasting mechanical energy they _will_
become unhappy and they _will_ call it a "bad economy."

(All this is assuming the rich are unsuccessful at getting the poor
exterminated with a geo war.)

The fun fun fun will come to an end except for the rich like Al Gore
who plan to keep right on burning fuel at a higher and higher rate.
Post by tg
What I mean is GDP goes up or
down,
GDP is like when they "adjust numbers for inflation" -- there really
aren't any channel markers.
Post by tg
and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
They will soon be considered idiots.
Post by tg
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
If gas goes up to $12/gallon, which it will, and the best a practical
[non clown] vehicle can do is 70 mpg, which was determined long ago by
continuum mechanics and thermodynamics, then you better come up with
Al Gore's kind of money if you plan to travel more.


Bret Cahill
tg
2007-12-27 21:34:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???
I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.
What does it mean?
a. Not being able to take a Sunday drive w/o thinking about fuel
costs.
b. Not being able to drive to work.
c. starving to death
d. Al Gore not being able to fly his fat sanctimonious ass around in
corp. jets.
Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.
But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.
First, this doesn't answer my question.
You wanted to know how it would be worse.
Only one entity decides if it is worse.
The _people_.
People like to move around with the air blowing in their faces. This
is an irreversible consumption of mechanical energy and will soon come
to a end for most people.
If people cannot cruise around wasting mechanical energy they _will_
become unhappy and they _will_ call it a "bad economy."
(All this is assuming the rich are unsuccessful at getting the poor
exterminated with a geo war.)
The fun fun fun will come to an end except for the rich like Al Gore
who plan to keep right on burning fuel at a higher and higher rate.
Post by tg
What I mean is GDP goes up or
down,
GDP is like when they "adjust numbers for inflation" -- there really
aren't any channel markers.
Post by tg
and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
They will soon be considered idiots.
Post by tg
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
If gas goes up to $12/gallon, which it will, and the best a practical
[non clown] vehicle can do is 70 mpg, which was determined long ago by
continuum mechanics and thermodynamics, then you better come up with
Al Gore's kind of money if you plan to travel more.
If people want to move around with the air blowing in their faces then
they should ride motorcycles.

I still think you worked on Al Gore's campaign and are upset that they
didn't get you that cabinet-level position you were hoping for.

-tg
Post by Bret Cahill
Bret Cahill
Bret Cahill
2007-12-28 04:11:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by tg
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???
I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.
What does it mean?
a. �Not being able to take a Sunday drive w/o thinking about fuel
costs.
b. �Not being able to drive to work.
c. �starving to death
d. �Al Gore not being able to fly his fat sanctimonious ass around in
corp. jets.
Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.
But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.
First, this doesn't answer my question.
You wanted to know how it would be worse.
Only one entity decides if it is worse.
The _people_.
People like to move around with the air blowing in their faces. �This
is an irreversible consumption of mechanical energy and will soon come
to a end for most people.
If people cannot cruise around wasting mechanical energy they _will_
become unhappy and they _will_ call it a "bad economy."
(All this is assuming the rich are unsuccessful at getting the poor
exterminated with a geo war.)
The fun fun fun will come to an end except for the rich like Al Gore
who plan to keep right on burning fuel at a higher and higher rate.
Post by tg
What I mean is GDP goes up or
down,
GDP is like when they "adjust numbers for inflation" -- there really
aren't any channel markers.
Post by tg
and all those other economic indicators that people tout when
they talk about The Economy.
They will soon be considered idiots.
Post by tg
Second, cars with better gas mileage would mean more ability to
travel, not less.
If gas goes up to $12/gallon, which it will, and the best a practical
[non clown] vehicle can do is 70 mpg, which was determined long ago by
continuum mechanics and thermodynamics, then you better come up with
Al Gore's kind of money if you plan to travel more.
If people want to move around with the air blowing in their faces then
they should ride motorcycles.
Lots of trauma patients in the ER. I told mom that the governator
rides motorcycles.
Post by tg
I still think you worked on Al Gore's campaign
Nope. Al Gore wants nothing to do with ideas.

Al Gore is as useless as SUV exhaust in a dust devil.


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 05:22:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
If gas goes up to $12/gallon, which it will, and the best a practical
[non clown] vehicle can do is 70 mpg, which was determined long ago by
continuum mechanics and thermodynamics, then you better come up with
Al Gore's kind of money if you plan to travel more.
You can do better, but not by much. 100 MPG is the approximate limit +-
10 MPG

The Optimal car will be about 75% of the size of smaller cars around
today. They will have only one seat, and an optional one in the back, be
75% the width, have 4 wheels, be powered by a 2 cylinder engine or an
electric motor.

Put two motorcycles side by side and you get the idea of the scale.

Ample room for batteries in the bottom of the vehicle will provide the
counterweight needed for stability in turning on existig roads, while the
smaller frontal area will reduce the drag coefficient.

With a plastic (non-corroding) skin, an entire vehicle could weigh around
500 kilograms A little more if battery powered.

Scooters typically get about 70 mpg.and there is room for improvement.
g***@snail-mail.net
2007-12-29 05:53:40 UTC
Permalink
People like to move around with the air blowing in their faces.  This
is an irreversible consumption of mechanical energy and will soon come
to a end for most people.
People used to like to ride horses; and horse and buggies. They mostly
don't any more. Yet, civilization survives.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-29 15:09:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by g***@snail-mail.net
Post by Bret Cahill
People like to move around with the air blowing in their faces. �This
is an irreversible consumption of mechanical energy and will soon come
to a end for most people.
People used to like to ride horses; and horse and buggies. They mostly
don't any more. Yet, civilization survives.
It survived in the _past_ . . . just like the rino survived in the
past.

The situation is different now because we know how much oil is down
there and how many people it supports.


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 19:25:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by g***@snail-mail.net
People used to like to ride horses; and horse and buggies. They mostly
don't any more. Yet, civilization survives.
It survived in the _past_ . . . just like the rino survived in the
past.
I think his logic is predicated on the ultimate truth that if something
survived the past it will survive the future.

And this is most evident in the fact that everyone who has lived in the
past live in the present and will undoubtedly live in the future.

When I drove to work yesterday my car survived the trip. Hence I know my
car will survive all trips in the future. I plan to call my insurance
company tomorrow and tell them about my observation and it's logical
conclusion.
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 05:11:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.
But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.
You do have feet don't you?
Bret Cahill
2007-12-29 15:16:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Generally speaking, material wealth and happiness haven't shown a very
strong correlation in the past.
But freedom to travel, which is now almost entirely dependent on oil,
is one outstanding exception.
� You do have feet don't you?
I have a bicycle which is often better than driving _or_ walking.

Problem is the oligarchy keeps the public fat and isolated in vehicles
so that they won't get organized politically.

An aging population may be green from a Malthusian POV buy older
people cannot be expected to cycle or walk as much.


Bret Cahill
Fred Weiss
2007-12-29 19:03:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Problem is the oligarchy keeps the public fat and isolated in vehicles
so that they won't get organized politically.
Oh that's it. When I get into my car that little rustling sound I hear
in the bushes is the oligarchy forcing me into the car.

Also, I commuted by bus into Manhattan for about 15 years and prior to
that growing up in Brooklyn I took buses and subways regularly. I
can't recall a single instance of the riders "organizing politically"
- or organizing anything for that matter. We were just happy if the
bus was on time and if we could get a seat

You truly are delusional, Brat.

Fred Weiss
Bret Cahill
2007-12-29 19:15:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Bret Cahill
Problem is the oligarchy keeps the public fat and isolated in vehicles
so that they won't get organized politically.
Oh that's it.
It's definitely a factor.
Post by Fred Weiss
When I get into my car that little rustling sound I hear
in the bushes is
Randroids hear all kinds of stuff.

. . .
Post by Fred Weiss
Also, I commuted by bus into Manhattan for about 15 years
Which, along with better education, explains why NYC is generally
liberal.

And with you constantly helping me make my case, I'm starting to think
you are liberal as well.


Bret Cahill
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 19:29:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Randroids hear all kinds of stuff.
Mostly the little voices in their heads. They come from moon beams you
know.

If he paints his head silver they will stop.
Fred Weiss
2007-12-29 21:35:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Fred Weiss
Post by Bret Cahill
Problem is the oligarchy keeps the public fat and isolated in vehicles
so that they won't get organized politically.
Oh that's it.
It's definitely a factor.
Post by Fred Weiss
When I get into my car that little rustling sound I hear
in the bushes is
Randroids hear all kinds of stuff.
But it's reassuring to know in this instance what it is. I'll try to
remember to invite the oligarchy in for a cup of coffee.
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Fred Weiss
Also, I commuted by bus into Manhattan for about 15 years
Which, along with better education, explains why NYC is generally
liberal.
Because of all those Republicans from the suburbs who commute in? Oh,
I see now. It's that all the Republicans have left the city, creating
that formidable political force which no candidate seems able to win
without: the indomitable "Soccer Mom".
Post by Bret Cahill
And with you constantly helping me make my case, I'm starting to think
you are liberal as well.
Now all you have to do is help us to understand what that case is
which you think you are making - a constant challenge with you.

Fred Weiss
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 19:26:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
An aging population may be green from a Malthusian POV buy older
people cannot be expected to cycle or walk as much.
Bike only paths and give them three wheelers so they won't tip over.
Dan Bloomquist
2007-12-27 17:39:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Bret Cahill
The economy may be worse than now
How, how, how???
I understand better for some than others, but so far I have yet to
hear what a "worse" economy means.
What does it mean?
A powerful deflation this way comes. GW has little to do with it. But
peak oil will exacerbate it.
Angelo Campanella
2007-12-28 03:51:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Don't therow away your snow shovels just yet.

Angelo Campanella
Alex
2007-12-28 21:06:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.

Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm

Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.

My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.

More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.

Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).

Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.

The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). See
http://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525

A quote from here:
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."

Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
tg
2007-12-29 00:00:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.

My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.

If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?

But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.

What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.

-tg
bill
2007-12-29 04:06:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en

Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.

Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.

I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
tg
2007-12-29 10:07:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?

-tg
bill
2007-12-29 14:46:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?
-tg
Where does the money come from? Generally, it is stolen from the
economy in the form of taxation, a burden placed on the backs of
productive citizens and industries. Marginal businesses become
nonviable and close their doors.
Now, since no one is really suggesting building 110,000 nuclear
power plants, they are suggesting things like "carbon taxes" and
"ethanol" and CF light bulbs, what they are doing is *not* attempting
to mitigate AGW, they are attempting to steal a greater and greater
percentage of the economic wealth for themselves while at the same
time giving it a coat of green paint. This sort of activity has huge
economic penalties because it returns nothing to the economy.
Constructing the nuc plants to at least eliminate coal on the
world power grids (roughly 25000 plants) would be a measure that would
indeed pay dividends and be good for the world economy. Pissing away
the money on PV farms produces nothing and does only harm. You see
the difference and the problem?
Shutting down transportation and the world power grid would
effectively end economic activity worldwide and that's what most
warmies seem to be proposing, since they oppose every possible real-
world mitigation effort.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-29 15:25:25 UTC
Permalink
�Generally, it is stolen from the
economy in the form of taxation,
Now now now. No one is holding a gun to anyone's head forcing him to
remain in the collectively acquired collectively defended territory of
the United States and pay taxes.

You are free to leave any time.

Call 1-800-FLY-4-LESS and book the next one way flight to Mogadishu in
low tax Somalia.

We don't need looneytarians.

We don't want looneytarians.


Bret Cahill
tg
2007-12-29 18:17:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?
-tg
Where does the money come from? Generally, it is stolen from the
economy in the form of taxation, a burden placed on the backs of
productive citizens and industries. Marginal businesses become
nonviable and close their doors.
Now, since no one is really suggesting building 110,000 nuclear
power plants, they are suggesting things like "carbon taxes" and
"ethanol" and CF light bulbs, what they are doing is *not* attempting
to mitigate AGW, they are attempting to steal a greater and greater
percentage of the economic wealth for themselves while at the same
time giving it a coat of green paint. This sort of activity has huge
economic penalties because it returns nothing to the economy.
Constructing the nuc plants to at least eliminate coal on the
world power grids (roughly 25000 plants) would be a measure that would
indeed pay dividends and be good for the world economy. Pissing away
the money on PV farms produces nothing and does only harm. You see
the difference and the problem?
No, I see that you have a very confused way of looking at these things
(or maybe it is poor communication), which is typical of the responses
to this question. I had hoped people who know about economics would
be able to be more focused.

Basic economic principles tell us that the market will not deal with
CO2 emissions because it is an externality. So to effect a change,
there must be government intervention. There are different forms of
intervention---taxation might be one, or regulation in the form of
efficiency standards, and so on. But you seem to have some paranoid
fantasies about "they" who are "stealing wealth" by suggesting that
we use a different lighting technology.

The only thing that such interventions can do, as far as I can see, is
change the winners and the losers---tungsten will be less valuable,
for example, and the price of mercury and other materials used in CF
bulbs will go up. Likewise, a carbon tax would mean that oil companies
might sell less, and makers of car batteries would make more. Just
like when the buggy whip manufacturers were put out of business. After
all, progress is all about marginal businesses being driven out of the
marketplace.

If you disagree, you should explain the *mechanism* by which the
economy is damaged---that's been the point of my question all along,
and there have been no answers.

-tg
Post by bill
Shutting down transportation and the world power grid would
effectively end economic activity worldwide and that's what most
warmies seem to be proposing, since they oppose every possible real-
world mitigation effort.
Bret Cahill
2007-12-29 19:20:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
� � �Where does the money come from? �Generally, it is stolen from the
economy in the form of taxation, a burden placed on the backs of
productive citizens and industries. �
. . .
Post by tg
No, I see that you have a very confused way of looking at these things
(or maybe it is poor communication),
It's just the way looneytarians play silly empty word games.

Just as the creationist called "science" a "religion" the looneytarian
calls "taxation" a "theft."

But if you ask what's the difference between rent and taxes, the
looneytarian get all upset.


Bret Cahill
bill
2007-12-29 20:51:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?
-tg
Where does the money come from? Generally, it is stolen from the
economy in the form of taxation, a burden placed on the backs of
productive citizens and industries. Marginal businesses become
nonviable and close their doors.
Now, since no one is really suggesting building 110,000 nuclear
power plants, they are suggesting things like "carbon taxes" and
"ethanol" and CF light bulbs, what they are doing is *not* attempting
to mitigate AGW, they are attempting to steal a greater and greater
percentage of the economic wealth for themselves while at the same
time giving it a coat of green paint. This sort of activity has huge
economic penalties because it returns nothing to the economy.
Constructing the nuc plants to at least eliminate coal on the
world power grids (roughly 25000 plants) would be a measure that would
indeed pay dividends and be good for the world economy. Pissing away
the money on PV farms produces nothing and does only harm. You see
the difference and the problem?
No, I see that you have a very confused way of looking at these things
(or maybe it is poor communication), which is typical of the responses
to this question. I had hoped people who know about economics would
be able to be more focused.
Basic economic principles tell us that the market will not deal with
CO2 emissions because it is an externality. So to effect a change,
there must be government intervention. There are different forms of
intervention---taxation might be one, or regulation in the form of
efficiency standards, and so on. But you seem to have some paranoid
fantasies about "they" who are "stealing wealth" by suggesting that
we use a different lighting technology.
The only thing that such interventions can do, as far as I can see, is
change the winners and the losers---tungsten will be less valuable,
for example, and the price of mercury and other materials used in CF
bulbs will go up. Likewise, a carbon tax would mean that oil companies
might sell less, and makers of car batteries would make more. Just
like when the buggy whip manufacturers were put out of business. After
all, progress is all about marginal businesses being driven out of the
marketplace.
If you disagree, you should explain the *mechanism* by which the
economy is damaged---that's been the point of my question all along,
and there have been no answers.
The point remains that replacing incandescent bulbs with CF is
nothing even approaching a first step in the process of mitigating GHG
emissions, it's a sad joke in fact, just like ethanol and all the
other multi-trillion dollar "efforts" that have been made to date.
Efficiency improvements can never and will never do more than offset
the growth in emissions, they will never and can never effect a
reduction in overall emissions.
The billions of dollars spent on replacement of the bulbs may pay
dividends, but they are truly nothing next to the 120 TRILLION dollar
effort that would be needed to mitigate the problem.
Now, since you've asked for a mechanism, I refer you to basic
economics to examine the effects that placing tax burdens on an
economy has on the function of that economy. I disagree also in
regard the free markets ability to mitigate the problem, in the 1970s
the nuclear power industry was growing at a high enough rate that if
politics hadn't prevented it, we would now be living in a world
powered not by coal, but instead by carbon neutral nuclear.
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 23:40:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by bill
Where does the money come from? Generally, it is stolen from the
economy in the form of taxation, a burden placed on the backs of
productive citizens and industries. Marginal businesses become
nonviable and close their doors.
Yup, what Capitalism really needs is complete anarchy to work with maximum
efficiently.
Post by bill
Now, since no one is really suggesting building 110,000 nuclear
power plants, they are suggesting things like "carbon taxes" and
"ethanol" and CF light bulbs, what they are doing is *not* attempting
to mitigate AGW, they are attempting to steal a greater and greater
percentage of the economic wealth for themselves while at the same
time giving it a coat of green paint.
110,000 nuclear power plants? That's about right (maybe twice that many).

No one is suggesting they be built because no one is stupid enough to
believe they can be built without causing significant environmental and
social problems.

After all we do have the Shit Sucking AmeriKKKan and Israeli states
threatening World War III over Iran building a single plant and the fuel
reprocessing facilities to supply it with fuel.

Carbon taxes of course are a means of raising the artificially low price
on energy so that it takes into consideration the price of using the
atmosphere commons as a dumping ground for all manner of gasesous waste
products.

Let the Libertarians whine as they always do about not being allowed to
purchase with the currancy of Candy, the sexual services of children.

Rights are absolute of course, and not granted by the state, and since in
Libertopia adults have the right to prostitute themselves, so too do
children, under Libertarian political ideology.









This sort of activity has huge
Post by bill
economic penalties because it returns nothing to the economy.
Constructing the nuc plants to at least eliminate coal on the
world power grids (roughly 25000 plants) would be a measure that would
indeed pay dividends and be good for the world economy. Pissing away
the money on PV farms produces nothing and does only harm. You see
the difference and the problem?
Shutting down transportation and the world power grid would
effectively end economic activity worldwide and that's what most
warmies seem to be proposing, since they oppose every possible real-
world mitigation effort.
Alex
2007-12-29 20:54:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?
In the UK, there's a renewables obligation, whereby distributors have
to buy a percentage of electricity from renewable sources. This pushes
up the average cost of electricity supplied, so people have less money
to spend on other things. That is the true cost.

At present, the cost is not great, because renewables are almost
competitive because (1) fossil fuels are expensive at the moment and
(2) wind power has improved dramatically over the last decade, to the
point where it is arguably competitive with nuclear (and coal, if
carbon is priced).

The situation is more complex if you include the balance of payments,
as consumption of gas to produce electricity increase imports, whereas
consumption of wind doesn't (or not as much - the turbines might be
made in Denmark, and the ship which drives the piles might be made in
China). It does however reduce the huge transfer of money from the
West to the Middle East and Russia.

Bear in mind however that much of this wealth transfer comes back to
us (e.g. in the UK) in the form of Saudi Arabian defence contracts and
Chelsea football club (and some goes to the Bin Laden Appreciation
Fund, and some to Putin's "Make Russia troublesome fund")

Further uncertainty is caused by the fact that we don't know what the
next generation of nuclear plants will cost, as no one has yet built
one. The manufacturers claim they'll be pretty cost effective, and
there is no substantive evidence against this claim (the only evidence
is cost overruns in Finland - it seems these are one-off and not
endemic to the design). If the claim is upheld, then moving to nuclear
could benefit the West as much as it benefited France in the past.
bill
2007-12-29 21:09:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alex
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?
In the UK, there's a renewables obligation, whereby distributors have
to buy a percentage of electricity from renewable sources. This pushes
up the average cost of electricity supplied, so people have less money
to spend on other things. That is the true cost.
At present, the cost is not great, because renewables are almost
competitive because (1) fossil fuels are expensive at the moment and
(2) wind power has improved dramatically over the last decade, to the
point where it is arguably competitive with nuclear (and coal, if
carbon is priced).
The situation is more complex if you include the balance of payments,
as consumption of gas to produce electricity increase imports, whereas
consumption of wind doesn't (or not as much - the turbines might be
made in Denmark, and the ship which drives the piles might be made in
China). It does however reduce the huge transfer of money from the
West to the Middle East and Russia.
Bear in mind however that much of this wealth transfer comes back to
us (e.g. in the UK) in the form of Saudi Arabian defence contracts and
Chelsea football club (and some goes to the Bin Laden Appreciation
Fund, and some to Putin's "Make Russia troublesome fund")
Further uncertainty is caused by the fact that we don't know what the
next generation of nuclear plants will cost, as no one has yet built
one. The manufacturers claim they'll be pretty cost effective, and
there is no substantive evidence against this claim (the only evidence
is cost overruns in Finland - it seems these are one-off and not
endemic to the design). If the claim is upheld, then moving to nuclear
could benefit the West as much as it benefited France in the past.
You left out that hydro-electric is a "renewable" which typically
accounts for 10% of grid electricity and is the *most* cost effective
energy available to us. so a 25% renewables commitment is really a
15% non-hydro renewables commitment. Wind is marginally competitive,
(5 cents per kwh compared to 2 for nuclear) up to 20% of the grid,
beyond that and the backup generation/storage starts to eat into its
competitiveness.
The "true cost" of these ventures must also include the exporting
of jobs and pollution to less regulated areas of the world. A vast
amount of industry has been relocated to china due in large part to
the chinese apathy toward their environment. It MAY be the case that
if the whole world decided to adopt the new rules and make the same
concerted effort toward mitigation that there would be no ill effects,
however, if neighbor X decides to do things the cheapest way possible,
and neighbor Y decides to do things the cleanest way possible, then it
is absolutely guaranteed that neighbor X will get wealthy while
neighbor Y slowly starves to death.
Alex
2007-12-29 22:24:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by bill
Post by Alex
Post by tg
Post by bill
Post by tg
Post by Alex
Post by tg
What is the cost?
Everyone whines about economic disaster if we try to reduce/prevent
gobal climate change. But so far I haven't heard any explanation of
what that would be.
Since this is a spinoff of something crossposted I will crosspost,
contrary to standard practice.
-tg
That's a big question.
Check here for a starter, then read the Stern report:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6096084.stm
Stern is an Economist but has drawn on the experience of technologists
and business people.
My view, if a little mitigation has a negative cost (=saving). Less
waste, more efficient cars, low energy bulbs, improved insulation, all
save money.
More substantial mitigations might be cost neutral, depending on how
implemented. Here I'm thinking of nuclear power, wind power, solar
power (depending on how the technology develops over the next few
years). Other uncertain technologies include PHEVs and Domestic micro-
CHP.
Significant cuts - say 80% for the USA, might cost a fair amount (a
few % of GDP) unless there are some serious breakthroughs in
technologies which can't be predicted (e.g polywell fusion, thin film
solar, open pond algae biodiesel).
Another expensive technology is carbon sequestration.
The other mitigation approach is to allow CO2 concentrations to
increase, but to cool the Earth in other ways (so called Plan B). Seehttp://www.financialexpress.com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157525
"Just 50 vessels, each costing a few million dollars and spraying
around 10kg (22lb) of water per second, could cancel out a year's
worth of global carbon-dioxide emissions--though another 50 vessels
would be needed every year until carbon-dioxide emissions were under
control."
Call that $250 million per year - a real snip. But would reducing
light levels reduce CO2 uptake by marine plants?
First, thanks for a serious reply.
My problem is that people seem to use terms like "cost" and "economy"
without clearly specifying what they mean.
If someone says "we will spend 1% of GDP on reducing CO2 emissions",
it sounds to me that the same money is being spent, but it would have
been spent on something else if not for the CO2 problem. But this
doesn't change the GDP, so how does it 'hurt the economy'?, which
is something people keep claiming with no explanation. Perhaps this is
what you mean by neutrality?
But then what does non-neutrality entail? Let's say we (the World
Government, with its Black Helicopters) simply prohibit the pumping of
25% of the oil and the same for coal . Obviously, the oil(coal)
producers and the refiners and distributors will not be paid for the
oil. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the money that would have
gone to them does not get spent. Indeed, if it is desired to continue
activities that required crude oil, money will be invested in
developing new technology to allow that; perhaps some tasks will be
performed by human labor that once were done by machines, and so on.
But people will still be employed, the money will flow, the economy
will go on.
What I'm looking for is a description of what the negative effect on
the economy would be---other than the inevitable winners and losers,
just like when the buggy-whip people got put out of business.
-tg
The answer is complicated and depends on many factors politic.
The simplest answer (substitute "dumb" for simple) would be to
replace all primary fossil fuel produced energy with nuclear power,
including transportation energy in the form of hydrogen.
this would involve worldwide construction of roughly 116,000
nuclear power plants. for a cost of 116 TRILLION dollars, or roughly 2
years WORLD gdp. To put it in perspective, that's enough to fight the
iraq war roughly 100 times.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=psAAiXPQSbaSyMxFynwxIRQ&hl=en
Now, this of course makes a BUNCH of simplifying assumptions.
For example, it totally neglects efficiency. In the case of coal,
that benefits reality compared to this number, in that coal to
electricity production is 33-50% efficient whereas nuclear is rated at
output, and is therefore 100%. The reverse is true for the hydrogen
side, hydrogen being somewhere between 10% to 15% efficient fuel to
wheels compared to 25 to 30% efficient for direct burning of gasoline.
Another simplifying assumption is that the energy demand profile
over the same timeframe will be relatively unchanged. that is clearly
not a safe assumption at all.
Now, this was intended to be an indication of the scale of the
effort that's involved in this changeover, regardless of how it is
done, the expense will be at least that high. For example, if instead
of nuclear power plants, you build windfarms, the cost will be
approximately 2.5 times as high. in PV cells, it'll be 10 times as
high.
I leave it as an exercise for the reader wether anyone thinks
that is a viable number to ponder spending.
Thanks bill, but I'm aware of all this kind of stuff. My question is,
how does building a gazillion nuclear plants (or whatever) "hurt the
economy"? Wouldn't such activity increase GDP?
In the UK, there's a renewables obligation, whereby distributors have
to buy a percentage of electricity from renewable sources. This pushes
up the average cost of electricity supplied, so people have less money
to spend on other things. That is the true cost.
At present, the cost is not great, because renewables are almost
competitive because (1) fossil fuels are expensive at the moment and
(2) wind power has improved dramatically over the last decade, to the
point where it is arguably competitive with nuclear (and coal, if
carbon is priced).
The situation is more complex if you include the balance of payments,
as consumption of gas to produce electricity increase imports, whereas
consumption of wind doesn't (or not as much - the turbines might be
made in Denmark, and the ship which drives the piles might be made in
China). It does however reduce the huge transfer of money from the
West to the Middle East and Russia.
Bear in mind however that much of this wealth transfer comes back to
us (e.g. in the UK) in the form of Saudi Arabian defence contracts and
Chelsea football club (and some goes to the Bin Laden Appreciation
Fund, and some to Putin's "Make Russia troublesome fund")
Further uncertainty is caused by the fact that we don't know what the
next generation of nuclear plants will cost, as no one has yet built
one. The manufacturers claim they'll be pretty cost effective, and
there is no substantive evidence against this claim (the only evidence
is cost overruns in Finland - it seems these are one-off and not
endemic to the design). If the claim is upheld, then moving to nuclear
could benefit the West as much as it benefited France in the past.
You left out that hydro-electric is a "renewable" which typically
accounts for 10% of grid electricity and is the *most* cost effective
energy available to us. so a 25% renewables commitment is really a
15% non-hydro renewables commitment.
I left out hydro because its pretty much exploited already. If you
have lots of mountains and lots of rain (Quebec, Norway), it is indeed
great (most of the time).

Wind is marginally competitive,
Post by bill
(5 cents per kwh compared to 2 for nuclear)
That's the most optimistic figure I've seen for nuclear - might figure
with an interest free loan. IIRC, 5c for wind and 4c for nuclear and
coal.

up to 20% of the grid,
Post by bill
beyond that and the backup generation/storage starts to eat into its
competitiveness.
Agree there
Post by bill
The "true cost" of these ventures must also include the exporting
of jobs and pollution to less regulated areas of the world. A vast
amount of industry has been relocated to china due in large part to
the chinese apathy toward their environment.
That's the case for manufacturing of traded goods, but we're not
buying electricity from China.

It MAY be the case that
Post by bill
if the whole world decided to adopt the new rules and make the same
concerted effort toward mitigation that there would be no ill effects,
however, if neighbor X decides to do things the cheapest way possible,
and neighbor Y decides to do things the cleanest way possible, then it
is absolutely guaranteed that neighbor X will get wealthy while
neighbor Y slowly starves to death.
Unless neighbour X is poisoned by his excrement because it was cheaper
not to install a toilet.
V-for-Vendicar
2007-12-29 23:00:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by bill
It MAY be the case that
if the whole world decided to adopt the new rules and make the same
concerted effort toward mitigation that there would be no ill effects,
however, if neighbor X decides to do things the cheapest way possible,
and neighbor Y decides to do things the cleanest way possible, then it
is absolutely guaranteed that neighbor X will get wealthy while
neighbor Y slowly starves to death.
It's a race to the bottom then, fueled by public ignorance in the products
that they purcahse. So much for the universal Economic assumption that
consumers have perfect
knowledge of the products they purchase.

No matter, we will have to use government regulation to level the playing
field.
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